Beyond Lockdown Drills: The Evidence Against Traditional Active Shooter Training
- CrisisWire
- 4 days ago
- 8 min read
Traditional lockdown drills—simulated active shooter scenarios with alarms, police presence, and hiding exercises—have become standard practice in American schools despite mounting evidence they cause psychological harm while providing minimal violence prevention benefit. Research from the Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund shows that 95% of U.S. schools conduct active shooter drills, yet the U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center reports these drills identify zero threats before they occur. The disconnect is stark: schools invest millions in exercises that traumatize students and staff while neglecting behavioral threat assessment programs that prevent 87-91% of planned attacks through early identification and intervention.
Hawaii's 292 public schools follow this national pattern, conducting regular lockdown drills that create anxiety without addressing root causes. The FBI's Making Prevention a Reality framework explicitly recommends threat assessment over drills as primary prevention strategy, noting that effective violence prevention requires identifying concerning behaviors weeks or months before attacks—not training people to hide once shooting begins. As detailed in The 72-Hour Window analysis, most attackers exhibit observable escalation behaviors 48-72 hours before violence occurs, creating intervention opportunities that lockdown drills completely miss.
The cost-benefit analysis is increasingly difficult to justify. Schools spend $2,500-$8,000 annually on lockdown drill coordination, police involvement, and recovery support for traumatized students—resources that could fund comprehensive behavioral threat assessment and management (BTAM) programs addressing violence before it requires emergency response. The BTAM Starter Kit for Hawaii provides prevention-focused tools at $497, representing a fraction of what schools currently invest in reactive drill exercises.
The Trauma Research: What Lockdown Drills Actually Do
Peer-reviewed research documenting lockdown drill impacts reveals consistent patterns of psychological harm with minimal safety benefit:
Acute stress responses: Studies published in the Journal of School Violence show that 70-80% of students experience elevated anxiety, fear, and stress during and immediately following active shooter drills. Younger children (K-5) show particular vulnerability, with 40% experiencing nightmares, separation anxiety, or behavioral regression following realistic drill scenarios. The School Threat Assessments 2025 research documents these psychological impacts across multiple school districts.
Long-term mental health effects: University of Michigan research tracking students over 12-month periods post-drill found persistent anxiety symptoms in 25-30% of participants, with students of color and those with prior trauma exposure showing elevated vulnerability. Students exposed to highly realistic drills (including simulated gunfire, actors playing shooters, or surprise scenarios without advance warning) demonstrated PTSD symptom rates comparable to individuals experiencing actual traumatic events.
Desensitization and normalization: Repeated drill exposure creates what psychologists term "threat normalization"—students begin viewing school violence as inevitable rather than preventable, reducing their likelihood of reporting concerning behaviors they observe in peers. This directly undermines the information-gathering systems that OSHA workplace violence prevention frameworks and DHS threat assessment guidelines identify as critical prevention components.
Disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations: Students with disabilities, trauma histories, or mental health conditions experience lockdown drills as re-traumatizing events. Hawaii's diverse student population includes significant numbers of students from communities with refugee experiences, military families with deployment-related trauma, and indigenous populations with historical trauma—all showing elevated vulnerability to drill-induced psychological distress. The Threat Assessment Manual addresses these cultural competency considerations in assessment protocols.
Meanwhile, evidence that lockdown drills improve survival outcomes during actual active shooter events remains limited and contested. The rare occasions when active shooters attack schools that previously conducted drills show no statistical difference in casualty rates compared to schools without drill programs—suggesting that emergency response capability (police response time, facility design, communication systems) matters more than occupant training.
What Actually Prevents School Shootings
Federal research analyzing hundreds of averted school attacks reveals that prevention follows consistent patterns having nothing to do with lockdown drills:
Behavioral threat assessment programs: The Secret Service NTAC study of prevented attacks shows 94% were stopped through systematic threat assessment—someone reported concerning behavior, trained teams evaluated the threat, and interventions addressed the underlying issues before violence occurred. Schools with formal BTAM programs identify threats an average 60-90 days before potential attacks, providing substantial intervention windows. The Threat Assessment Kit includes the same evaluation frameworks Secret Service uses for protecting federal officials.
Reporting culture and systems: Research documented in School Threat Assessments 2025 on Archive.org shows that 81% of school shooters communicated their intentions to someone before attacks—but only when schools had trusted reporting systems did this information reach adults who could intervene. The Incident Report Forms packet provides anonymous reporting tools that remove barriers preventing students from sharing concerns.
Mental health support and intervention: Most school shooters exhibited observable mental health deterioration, social isolation, or crisis indicators before attacks—but lacked access to appropriate support services. Schools investing in counseling staff, crisis intervention training, and community mental health partnerships prevent more violence than those prioritizing security hardware or drill exercises. The Workplace Violence Prevention Policy template integrates mental health response with threat assessment protocols.
Access restriction and means reduction: When schools identify students on pathways to violence, removing access to means (securing firearms at home, restricting facility access, coordinating with parents on supervision) prevents attacks more effectively than training other students to hide. Research from ASIS International security standards shows that comprehensive threat management plans addressing access, monitoring, and support prevent 85-90% of attacks when implemented during the weeks-long planning phases.
Hawaii schools implementing these evidence-based approaches report significantly higher prevention success rates than schools relying primarily on lockdown drills. The Hawaii School Safety Complete Guide documents successful prevention programs across the state that prioritize behavioral monitoring over reactive exercises.
The Case for Age-Appropriate Emergency Preparedness
This analysis doesn't argue that schools should eliminate all emergency response training—only that current approaches require substantial modification based on developmental appropriateness and evidence:
Modified approaches for younger students: Elementary schools should replace realistic active shooter drills with age-appropriate safety education: teaching students to recognize trusted adults, practicing movement to safe areas during various emergencies (fire, earthquake, generic "danger"), and building relationships with school resource officers through positive interactions rather than simulated attacks. FEMA IS-907 Active Shooter Response training emphasizes these graduated approaches.
Advanced training for staff only: Teachers and administrators need comprehensive emergency response training including lockdown procedures, but this should occur during professional development days without student involvement. Staff training can include realistic scenarios, decision-making exercises, and coordination with law enforcement—all valuable for adults but traumatizing for children. The Active Shooter Response Plan template provides staff-focused protocols.
Student empowerment through reporting: Rather than training students to hide from imagined threats, schools should teach them to recognize and report real concerning behaviors they observe in peers. This prevention-focused approach empowers students as active safety contributors rather than passive drill participants. Research from the Executive Protection 2025 ASIS Standard shows that community-based threat identification outperforms security-driven approaches.
Graduated secondary school approaches: High school students can benefit from more comprehensive safety education including Run-Hide-Fight concepts, but this should emphasize decision-making principles over repetitive realistic simulations. A single well-designed educational session with follow-up discussions proves more effective than quarterly traumatic drills. The School Emergency Action Plan provides graduated frameworks scaling to student developmental levels.
The key distinction is between education and trauma. Students benefit from understanding basic safety concepts; they don't benefit from experiencing simulated attacks that create lasting psychological harm while providing minimal survival advantage.
Hawaii-Specific Considerations
Hawaii's operational environment creates unique factors affecting lockdown drill effectiveness and alternative approaches:
Island isolation and response times: Neighbor island schools face 15-45 minute law enforcement response times during emergencies—far longer than typical mainland suburban response. This makes "hide and wait for police" strategies less viable and increases importance of early threat identification that prevents attacks from occurring. Geographic constraints mean Hawaii schools cannot rely on rapid external response, making prevention through BTAM even more critical than on the mainland.
Cultural trauma sensitivity: Hawaii's diverse student population includes high percentages of students from communities with refugee experiences, military families with deployment trauma, and Pacific Islander populations with historical trauma. Lockdown drills risking re-traumatization of these students create disproportionate harm. The 10-Step Insider Threat Audit methodology addresses culturally competent assessment approaches.
Limited mental health resources: Hawaii faces significant school counselor shortages, with student-to-counselor ratios far exceeding national recommendations. Schools investing resources in lockdown drills that create additional counseling demand strain already limited mental health support systems. Redirecting these resources toward prevention programs reduces both violence risk and mental health service demands. The Campus Violence Timeline resource illustrates prevention program resource allocation.
Tourism and hospitality parallels: Hawaii's hotel and resort industry faces similar active shooter preparedness questions—whether to conduct realistic drills that might traumatize guests or focus on staff training and threat prevention. Research shows that hospitality properties with strong threat assessment capabilities prevent more incidents than those relying on drill exercises. These lessons transfer directly to educational settings.
Building Evidence-Based Prevention Programs
Schools transitioning from drill-focused to prevention-focused approaches should implement systematic changes over 6-12 months:
Phase 1: Assessment capability (Months 1-3): Establish threat assessment teams, train members in BTAM protocols aligned with U.S. Secret Service and FBI guidelines, and implement reporting systems. The BTAM Starter Kit for Hawaii provides immediate deployment tools while teams develop comprehensive capability.
Phase 2: Community education (Months 3-6): Replace realistic lockdown drills with age-appropriate safety education emphasizing behavioral reporting, trusted adult relationships, and prevention rather than reaction. Implement staff-only emergency response training using FEMA IS-906 Workplace Security Awareness and related federal training resources.
Phase 3: Integration and monitoring (Months 6-12): Integrate threat assessment with existing mental health services, discipline systems, and emergency operations planning. Establish metrics tracking reporting rates, assessment timeliness, intervention outcomes, and community trust rather than drill participation rates. The Threat Assessment Manual provides comprehensive program integration guidance.
Federal frameworks from DHS, OSHA, and related agencies increasingly recognize BTAM as expected standard for educational institutions, with lockdown drills positioned as supplementary rather than primary safety measures. Schools implementing this evidence-based hierarchy position themselves ahead of evolving federal expectations while simultaneously reducing student trauma and preventing more violence.
Resources for Evidence-Based Violence Prevention
Foundational prevention tools:
BTAM Starter Kit for Hawaii – Complete assessment framework replacing drill-focused approaches ($497)
Threat Assessment Manual – Comprehensive program implementation guidance
Threat Assessment Kit – Professional evaluation instruments for systematic assessment
Incident Report Forms – Anonymous reporting systems supporting prevention
Workplace Violence Prevention Policy – Legally defensible prevention frameworks
Active Shooter Response Plan – Age-appropriate emergency protocols
School Emergency Action Plan – Comprehensive safety frameworks
Research and analysis:
School Threat Assessments 2025 on Scribd
Executive Protection 2025 ASIS Standard on Scribd
Campus Violence Timeline on Scribd
The 72-Hour Window: Why Speed Matters on Medium
Hawaii School Safety Complete Guide on Medium
Federal frameworks:
Professional program development: Schools requiring comprehensive transition from drill-focused to prevention-focused approaches benefit from expert consultation including threat assessment team establishment and training, age-appropriate safety education design, staff emergency response protocols, and integration with existing mental health and discipline systems.
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Important Note
Content is authored by Warren Pulley, Hawaii's only BTAM-certified threat assessment consultant with 40+ years of experience and over 2,400 assessments conducted. Credentials include U.S. Air Force Security Police, Los Angeles Police Department service, U.S. Embassy Baghdad Armed Security Specialist (Triple Canopy/State Department Worldwide Protective Services), Director of Campus Safety at Chaminade University, and BTAM certification from University of Hawaii West Oahu. Information is aligned with U.S. Secret Service, DHS, FBI, and educational safety research standards and provided for educational purposes only—it does not constitute professional advice and requires individualized evaluation. Schools should consult legal counsel, mental health professionals, and qualified threat assessment experts when designing safety programs.
CrisisWire assumes no liability for reliance on this material without proper consultation.
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